Gabriel’s Absence Exposes Arsenal’s Fragile Backbone: What the Numbers Really Say

Arsenal without Gabriel face a difficult stretch ahead after it was confirmed that the defender will be sidelined for a few weeks, a worrying development given that the team have failed to win 18 of the 30 Premier League games he has missed since joining in 2020.

For a team aiming to push Manchester City and Liverpool for domestic dominance, losing one of their most reliable players spells a difficult period ahead.

A Startling Statistic That Tells a Bigger Story

The statistic—18 games without victory in 30 matches when Gabriel is absent—is not a coincidence or a quirk of timing. It represents a deeper pattern in Arsenal’s structure:
Gabriel is not just another member of the backline; he is the defensive anchor, the aggressor, the aerial presence, and the psychological stabilizer.

Since 2020:

• With Gabriel: Arsenal average 2.12 points per game

• Without Gabriel: Arsenal drop to 1.26 points per game

• Clean sheet percentage drops by nearly 40%

• Aerial duels won decrease significantly, especially against physical sides

His availability has quietly been one of Arsenal’s biggest advantages over the last three seasons.

Arsenal’s Defensive Record With vs. Without Gabriel

When Gabriel Plays:

• Arsenal defend higher and with more confidence

• William Saliba performs with greater freedom

• Full-backs invert more comfortably

• Transitions are controlled, reducing counterattacks

• Arsenal dominate set pieces defensively

Gabriel’s presence often allows Arteta to commit more men forward during build-up, knowing the Brazilian can handle 1v1 duels behind.

When Gabriel Is Missing:

• Defensive line drops deeper

• Increased vulnerability from crosses and set pieces

• Saliba becomes overburdened, affecting his distribution

• Midfielders are forced to sit instead of support the attack

• Opponents exploit the left channel more aggressively

His absence impacts both phases—defence and attack—because Arsenal’s structure relies heavily on positional security.

The Tactical Impact of Losing Gabriel

1. Loss of Physicality and Aerial Dominance

Gabriel ranks among the Premier League’s best for aerial duels won. Arsenal, already not the most physically imposing side, lose their main weapon against target men and direct sides.

2. Saliba Left Exposed

The Saliba–Gabriel partnership is central to Arsenal’s identity. Remove one, and the other’s performance dips. Saliba thrives with Gabriel’s aggression beside him; without it, he must compensate, reducing his ability to progress play.

3. Reduced Build-Up Stability

Arteta prefers building up with a box midfield that relies on the centre-backs being comfortable in isolation. Without Gabriel, Arsenal often abandon this structure, making them more predictable.

4. Set-Piece Weakness

Arsenal’s defensive improvements on set pieces coincide with Gabriel’s arrival. He’s crucial in both clearing danger and marking key opposition threats.

Fan and Pundit Reactions

Reactions online have been immediate and emotional.

One Arsenal supporter on social media wrote:
“We can’t pretend this isn’t massive. Gabriel is our defensive heartbeat.”

A popular pundit on a football podcast added:
“Arsenal can replace forwards, midfielders, even full-backs. But replacing Gabriel? That’s where the squad gets thin.”

Neutral fans also echoed concern, noting the pattern of Arsenal losing composure when Gabriel isn’t available.

What This Means for Arsenal’s Upcoming Fixtures

The next few weeks could define Arsenal’s season trajectory. Without Gabriel, Arteta faces major decisions:

1. Who Steps In?

• Jakub Kiwior offers composure but lacks Gabriel’s physical edge.

• Takehiro Tomiyasu is reliable but not a natural left-sided CB.

• Ben White shifting inside disrupts the right-back structure.

None fully replicate what Gabriel brings.

2. Will Arteta Adjust Tactically?

Arteta might:

• Drop the defensive line slightly

• Avoid risky build-up in central zones

• Use a double pivot to protect the backline

• Emphasize compactness over control

These shifts would change Arsenal’s rhythm entirely.

3. Impact on Title or Top-Four Aspirations

Every point matters. Dropping even 5–7 points during this period could have long-term effects on their position in the title race or Champions League battle.

Conclusion

Gabriel’s absence is more than a temporary injury setback—it’s a structural disruption. The numbers clearly show that Arsenal are significantly weaker without him, both statistically and tactically.

For a team aiming for consistency and silverware, navigating the next few weeks without their defensive leader will be a defining challenge. How Mikel Arteta adapts, and how the squad responds, could shape the rest of their season.